Truckload Spot Rates Surge 12% YoY — Diesel Climbs Past $4; Carrier Rejections Hit 8-Month High
Welcome to the first edition of FreightSignal. Each week, we analyze freight rate data, capacity indicators, and supply chain developments to deliver actionable intelligence for shippers, brokers, and logistics professionals. This week: a tightening truckload market, rising fuel costs, and regulatory shifts that could reshape carrier capacity in Q2.
Truckload Spot Rates Surge 12% Year-over-Year — Tightest Market Since Mid-2024
National dry van spot rates averaged $2.18 per mile this week, up 12.3% from the same period last year and 4.1% above the January average. The increase marks the fifth consecutive week of gains and pushes spot rates to their highest level since June 2024.
The rally is being driven by a combination of factors: seasonal produce demand ramping early in the Southeast, continued carrier attrition (net revocations outpaced new authority grants by 2,100 in February), and a diesel price spike that's compressing margins for owner-operators. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) climbed to 7.2%, its highest reading since June 2025.
Why it matters: After nearly two years of oversupply, the truckload market is showing real signs of rebalancing. Shippers who locked in favorable contract rates in late 2025 are well-positioned, but those relying heavily on spot capacity should expect higher costs through Q2. Brokers are seeing margins compress as carrier rate expectations rise faster than customer pricing.
What to watch: March produce season in Florida and South Texas will be the next test. If rejection rates push above 8%, expect contract rate negotiations to shift firmly in carriers' favor for the first time since 2022.
Diesel Prices Climb Past $4.00 Nationally for First Time Since October
The national average diesel price hit $4.07/gallon this week, according to EIA data — up $0.23 from a month ago and $0.41 above the year-ago level. Refinery maintenance season and tighter global crude supplies are the primary drivers. The fuel surcharge impact is significant: at current rates, fuel adds roughly $0.58/mile to a 6 MPG truck, up from $0.51 in January. Owner-operators running older equipment are particularly squeezed, which is accelerating capacity exit and contributing to the spot rate rally above.
FMCSA Proposes Stricter Speed Limiter Rule — 68 MPH Cap for Heavy Trucks
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would require electronic speed limiters set at 68 MPH on all commercial vehicles over 26,000 lbs. The rule, if finalized, would take effect in late 2027. Industry groups are divided: safety advocates and large fleets (many of which already govern at 65 MPH) support the measure, while owner-operators argue it will reduce productivity by 3-5% on long-haul lanes. The comment period runs through May 15. Shippers should factor potential transit time impacts into 2027 routing guides.
LTL Carriers Post Strong Q4 Earnings — Pricing Power Holds Despite Volume Softness
Major LTL carriers reported Q4 2025 results this week, and the theme was consistent: revenue per hundredweight continues to climb even as tonnage remains flat. Old Dominion posted a 93.2 operating ratio — best-in-class — while Saia expanded terminals for the 8th consecutive quarter. XPO reported yield improvement of 6.8% excluding fuel. The LTL sector's disciplined pricing following Yellow's 2023 closure continues to benefit incumbents. For shippers, LTL rate increases of 5-8% in 2026 contracts appear locked in.
Intermodal Volume Up 4.2% — Rail Service Metrics Improving
Intermodal container volume rose 4.2% year-over-year in the week ending February 22, per AAR data. Class I railroads have invested heavily in service reliability, and it's showing: average intermodal transit times on the LA–Chicago corridor improved to 4.8 days, down from 5.3 days a year ago. The truckload spot rate rally is making intermodal increasingly competitive on lanes over 750 miles, where the cost spread has widened to roughly $0.35/mile in intermodal's favor. Shippers should revisit mode conversion opportunities as rail service reaches multi-year highs.
National average per mile, up 12.3% YoY and 4.1% MoM. Fifth consecutive week of gains.
National average, up $0.41 YoY. Highest level since October 2025. Refinery maintenance driving the spike.
Outbound Tender Rejection Index at 8-month high. Carriers increasingly selective on loads as rates improve.
National average per mile, up 9.7% YoY. Early produce season in FL and South TX driving seasonal demand.
Per mile average, relatively stable at +3.2% YoY. Construction and infrastructure spending provide steady floor.
Net revocations exceeded new grants in February. Capacity attrition continues to tighten the market.
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